AI Capex Stress Monitor
A composite regime indicator combining hyperscaler capex/OCF, credit spreads, volatility regime, and Nasdaq concentration.
Descriptive regime indicator only. This composite was tested and rejected as a tradable timing signal (out-of-sample it did not predict drawdowns better than high-yield credit spreads alone). Not financial advice.
Regime State
FULL96%
Composite stress is in the extreme band (≥85th percentile of its 5-year history).
As of 2026-06-24 · 8/8 components
Composite Stress Percentile (1Y)
2025-02-042026-06-24
Extreme ≥85%Elevated 67%
Component Breakdown
Each component as a rolling 5-year z-score. Red = currently in its stressed direction.
VIX level
stress when high
+0.05
VIX percentile
stress when high
62%
VIX term slope
stress when low
-0.54
HY credit spread
stress when high
-1.10
HY spread momentum
stress when high
+0.12
IG credit spread
stress when high
-1.18
Hyperscaler capex/OCF
stress when high
+1.92
NDX top-7 concentration
stress when high
+3.46
Underlying Series (1Y)
VIX19.49
VIX term slope0.08
HY OAS2.71
IG OAS0.74
Hyperscaler capex/OCF0.93
NDX top-7 weight1.000
Components are equal-weighted rolling 5-year z-scores. Vol & credit from FRED (VIXCLS, VXVCLS, BAMLH0A0HYM2, BAMLC0A0CM); hyperscaler capex/OCF and Nasdaq top-7 concentration from public market data. The NDX concentration figure is a price-sum proxy. Composite percentile maps to a regime band at the 67th (elevated) and 85th (extreme) percentiles of its own history.